That's a hard question. There's a lot variables to take into place.
To start, though, I ALWAYS believe I'm going to catch something each trip. Guided or unguided. Unfortunately, it's not always the case!
Water levels being one of them most prevalent variables for winter steelead..If it's on the drop for a few days, I always anticipate multiple hookups.
Then when the water gets low, I still expect hookups, just not as many.
Of course, there's other variables like weather, east winds, etc.
Over the course of January, my boat has seen two skunks, four 4-6 fish days, five days with around 10, and a handful of those amazing 20+ hookup days...