Fall Chinook return predicted to be fifth largest since 1948

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beaverfan

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Columbia River Fall Chinook Return Predicted To Be Fifth Largest Since 1948; 760,000 Fish

Posted on Friday, February 25, 2011 (PST)

The 2011 return of fall chinook salmon to the Columbia River basin is expected to be the fifth largest since at least 1948, and nearly 200,000 fish higher than the recent 10-year average return, according to preseason forecasts released this week by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and the U.S. v Oregon Technical Advisory Committee.



TAC is made up of federal, state and tribal fishery experts.



The forecast is buoyed by the expectation of a large upriver bright component, some 398,200 adult fish to the mouth of the Columbia River. Such a return would be the second largest since record-keeping began in 1964. The largest return was 420,700 in 1987.



The largest share of URB chinook are destined for the Hanford Reach section of the Columbia River, Priest Rapids Hatchery, and the Snake River with smaller portions headed for the Deschutes and Yakima rivers.



More than 60 percent of the 2011 upriver bright return is expected to be age 4 fish. The URBs, Bonneville Pool Hatchery tule fall chinook, most of which are produced at Spring Creek National Fish Hatchery in the Bonneville pool, and a portion of the Mid-Columbia bright chinook are produced above Bonneville Dam, which is located at river mile 146.



The upriver MCB component (Pool Upriver Brights or Pool Upriver Bright stocks) is comprised of brights that are reared at Little White Salmon, Irrigon, and Klickitat hatcheries and released in areas between Bonneville and McNary dams. Some natural production is believed to take place in the mainstem Columbia River below John Day Dam, and in the Wind, White Salmon, Klickitat and Umatilla rivers.



The total forecast is for a return of 760,600 Columbia River fall chinook this year, which would be greater than the actual 2010 return of 648,600. The URB return last year was 324,900, which was greater than the 310,800 February 2010 forecast.



The new TAC-WDFW forecast projects that the BPH return will number 116,400. That would be slightly less than the 130,800 total last year but greater than the 10-year average (105,900).



The preseason forecast is for a return of 37,600 BUBs, which would be similar to the 10-year average return of 47,500. The actual return last year was 29,400.



The anticipated PUB return is 62,400 adult fish, which would be the third largest return on a record dating back to 1986. Such a return would also be well above the 10-year average (43,800) and a 2010 return of 49,600.



The Lower River Hatchery stock fall chinook return in 2011 is pegged at 133,500, which would be the best return since 2003 and greater than the 10-year average (92,500). The return last year totaled 103,000.



The Lower River Wild stock forecast is for a return of 12,500. That would be an improvement over returns over the past four years but slightly less than the 10-year average (9,700).



The LRH stock is primarily produced in hatchery facilities (five in Washington and one in Oregon) while the LRW stock is naturally produced primarily in the Lewis River system, with smaller components also present in the Cowlitz and Sandy rivers, according to the July 2010 Joint Staff Report produced the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife and WDFW.



Some natural production of LRH stock likely occurs in many tributaries below Bonneville Dam, including the Coweeman, East Fork Lewis, and Grays rivers in Washington. LRH return to some Oregon tributaries including the Clatskanie, Scappoose and Sandy rivers.

Columbia River Fall Chinook Return Predicted To Be Fifth Largest Since 1948; 760,000 Fish
 
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halibuthitman

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predictions.... Ive got a magic 8 ball I would loan these morons as soon as the national weather service is done borrowing it-
 
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Phil_Bud

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Sounds good bud...I hope I can make it up to the Columbia this year...we're supposed to get agood run of springers down on the Rogue River too....good to see and hear the salmon are gonna be in heavy...future looks chrome.
 
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Moe

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oh man come on, first you get me excited about springers, then you gotta bring this up?
 
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imfishing

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Sounds to me like the 2009 1.2 million coho salmon return prediction in the Willamette system.

Fishing License and Tackle sales must be slumping....

Boat sales must be tanking hard core....

Bait sales must be at an all time low.

The odfw [intentionally left lower case] must be ready to lobby for another rate hike, or pay raise.

They gots to get theirs too.

Gimme an O, Gimme a D, Gimme an F, Gimme a W....

Goooooo Pacific Northwest Political Regime Bent On Brainwashing The North West Angler Into Thinking They Are Doing A Great Job And Not Pushing Some Money Laundering Agenda.

Yea Team.
 
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beaverfan

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Sounds to me like the 2009 1.2 million coho salmon return prediction in the Willamette system.

Fishing License and Tackle sales must be slumping....

Boat sales must be tanking hard core....

Bait sales must be at an all time low.

The odfw [intentionally left lower case] must be ready to lobby for another rate hike, or pay raise.

They gots to get theirs too.

Gimme an O, Gimme a D, Gimme an F, Gimme a W....

Goooooo Pacific Northwest Political Regime Bent On Brainwashing The North West Angler Into Thinking They Are Doing A Great Job And Not Pushing Some Money Laundering Agenda.

Yea Team.

So I take it you have no proof/evidence of any of the accusations in your post, if not then take it somewhere else bro! This thread is about Chinook salmon on the Columbia River not to see what kind of unjustified dirt slinging you can come up with to make ODFW look bad. In fact ODFW is one of the better run fish and wildlife departments in the entire country! (I can think of 2 that are better, Montana and Alaska) Start your own thread if you want to bash ODFW but seriously you should probably just keep your accusations to yourself unless you got some evidence to support your "theory"!
 
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SemperFly

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In fact ODFW is one of the better run fish and wildlife departments in the entire country! (I can think of 2 that are better, Montana and Alaska) Start your own thread if you want to bash ODFW but seriously you should probably just keep your accusations to yourself unless you got some evidence to support your "theory"!
If we're going to be swinging the proof bat, where is yours? Telling someone they have no proof and then forwarding your own claims (also without proof) is kind of silly.

Just sayin...
 
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GungasUncle

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Well, ODFW IS facing reorganization and merging with other state agencies into a DNR - it's quite possible that there is some political motivation behind such a large forecast. Could be higher ups looking to hold on to jobs, could be that they're hoping that if they "prove" the fisheries are doing better that it'll stave off being pushed into a DNR...could be anything.

The thing about predictions - is that anyone can make them, some will be more accurate than others - but anyone can make a prediction.

And predictions are just guesses - sometimes educated sometimes not. Sure, the Columbia could see massive returns. By the same token - Canadian and Alaskan fishing boats could wreck the same fishery by taking a huge chunk of our fish. Fur bags could devastate the return - just like they're chowing down on sturgeon right now in the Columbia. We could have a natural disaster that disrupts the run.

If these numbers materialize, that'll be super. I won't hold my breath.
 
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imfishing

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Greeting Everyone...

Beaverfan,

I don't know what to make of your comments sir...

It kind of reads like you think you are more entitled to your opinion the me.

I was only trying to fit in with the fellas, But once again I'm banished the Island Of Misfit Toys.

Also Kind Of Reads As I May Have Struck A Nerve. Not my intentions. Here we go again.

I guess the keyboard is mightier then the sword.

But thats cool...Bro!!

I thought this was a public forum and not one persons little sounding board.

I know I have asked this before but got no response....

Please Could One Of You Moderators Just Delete My Account From Here...I can't seem to play nice these days.

The want has left me...
 
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halibuthitman

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your not the only charlie in a box on the forum... learn to love the island like I do!
 
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imfishing

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your not the only charlie in a box on the forum... learn to love the island like I do!

Another disfunctional kid that Identifies with only being able to watch TV during the christmas specials...Cool.

That might be an interesting poll:
Of All The Misfit Toys That Reside On The Island Of Misfit Toys...
Which Misfit Toy Do You Most Identify With...

all_misfit_toys_welcome_here-1.jpg

I Guess I Would Have to Say...The Boat That Sinks.

Cool.
 
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halibuthitman

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I know only one thing about this forum... for every guy who flames you 3371 members sit quietly at their computers and say " that guys kinda makin sense" so unless your shooting for a daytime emmy.. just keep doin what your doin... and a lot of folks will read what you say and take what they want from it... and you will be a valuable contributer to the forum.. Ride on-
 
I

imfishing

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I know only one thing about this forum... for every guy who flames you 3371 members sit quietly at their computers and say " that guys kinda makin sense" so unless your shooting for a daytime emmy.. just keep doin what your doin... and a lot of folks will read what you say and take what they want from it... and you will be a valuable contributer to the forum.. Ride on-

Greetings Sir...

Are typing about me as your affirmation is non-street name specific.

Anyhow that all sounds good...Thanks
 
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bigsteel

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Greeting Everyone...

Beaverfan,

I don't know what to make of your comments sir...

It kind of reads like you think you are more entitled to your opinion the me.

I was only trying to fit in with the fellas, But once again I'm banished the Island Of Misfit Toys.

Also Kind Of Reads As I May Have Struck A Nerve. Not my intentions. Here we go again.

I guess the keyboard is mightier then the sword.

But thats cool...Bro!!

I thought this was a public forum and not one persons little sounding board.

I know I have asked this before but got no response....

Please Could One Of You Moderators Just Delete My Account From Here...I can't seem to play nice these days.

The want has left me...

just go to change your password then type a bunch of letters in and you wont be able to get into your account,,but my guess is you like arguing back and forth so youll stay around
 
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Eastcoastborn

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looking forward to it, but not getting my hope too high. these are only predictions. we will see what the actual numbers are after the season is over. Does anyone have any info on the accuracy of these predictions? How close were they in years past?
 
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halibuthitman

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looking forward to it, but not getting my hope too high. these are only predictions. we will see what the actual numbers are after the season is over. Does anyone have any info on the accuracy of these predictions? How close were they in years past?
they typicaly get the state and the kind of fish right... otherwise its the old dart at a dartboard acuracy level, not bad for all the biology majors who were too stoned at university of montana to make it to class-
 
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Eastcoastborn

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any links to sites which show prediction numbers next to actual number? I will also research myself.
 
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