COVID-19

OREGON FISHING FORUM

rogerdodger

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How do we know that count is dropping because they took the virus under control, not because everyone got infected and virus just can't find new bodies to infect?
there are models for the % of people that need to be infected/recovered in order to cause a drop in new infections, I don't think any countries have come close to that yet.
 

pinstriper

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Right. That point does come, not sure where it is, and I for sure and skeptical of the numbers anyway, due to lack of testing and general distrust of China’s reporting anyway.

Hans I totally agree with you it shouldn’t have been an either/or thing.

There is also a 4 hour result test rolling out this week in mass quantities.
 

rogerdodger

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March 28- US looks to hit 2,000 deaths about 1pm PDT.

To put this graph in context, China has 4.3x the population of the US and a higher density (China- 375 people per sq.mile, US-87 per sq.mile). I think it is safe to say that the US is past the point where delays in testing would change the current situation.



For contrast, here is the data for South Korea, which took extensive early action and flattened the curve. The US has 6x the population of Korea, however they have a much higher population density (Korea- 1313 people per sq.mile).

 

wils

Active member
The tests that WHO had were giving false positives and false negatives.
There has been a nasty flu up and down the west coast for a couple of months now.
The media doesn't make money when people don't follow the news 24/7.
just sayin'
 

Anatoliy

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Speaking of social distancing. Ukraine - Poland border.

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So when you guys decide to criticize your government, think twice.
 

Stumpy

Member
Thanks, Anatoliy!

Bringing partisan-politics into the conversation is decidedly divisive and serves absolutely no useful purpose to where we are now.

I wouldn't want to be making decisions in ANY national level position now, or recently, given the paucity of information on constructive ways to deal with the pandemic.

Casting stones............
 

rogerdodger

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March 29- US growth rate in cases continues to rise faster than the other countries with major outbreaks, notice in the top right where I added the 200K and 500K lines.

 

rogerdodger

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How do we know that count is dropping because they took the virus under control, not because everyone got infected and virus just can't find new bodies to infect?
Anatoliy- found a good article on this, common term is "Herd Immunity" and it almost always requires immunizations to achieve, unless the death rate from the disease is very low. It also depends on mutation and reinfection rates, plus how easily the disease spreads. Measles requires >95% immunity.

"Research so far suggests that the coronavirus has a lower infection rate than measles, with each infected person passing it on to two or three new people, on average. This means that herd immunity should be achieved when around 60 percent of the population becomes immune to COVID-19."

60% of the US population and a 1% death rate would mean roughly 2 million deaths.

The U.K. backed off on herd immunity. To beat COVID-19, we’ll ultimately need it.
 

rogerdodger

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I'm hoping for some good data to post soon...in the meantime, I think it's worth reminding people that the whole process of social distancing and limiting contact is not a selfish attempt to reduce your chance of catching a disease. Social Distancing is a proven societal technique of slowing the spread of a pandemic and 'flattening the curve' so that medical facilities and staff are not overwhelmed, which leads to unnecessary deaths and excess trauma for the medical heroes.

Social distancing by otherwise healthy people is about reducing the rate of spreading a pandemic disease by reducing the number of interactions between people because you spread it before you have any symptoms.

FYI- if you are looking for some really good, sometimes really technical medical info on the virus, including a look at some of the rapidly developing research, and publications, the MedCram updates on Youtube are great, some of it easy to understand, but also some highly technical medical info.


here is their explanation of the SARS lung symptom that is a key part of the higher mortality and why a shortage of ventilators results in excess deaths:

 

rogerdodger

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finally some good news, at least for Oregon. If you heard something on the news about improved outlook for Oregon, with cases peaking sooner and less expected fatalities, it came from the IHME center of excellence at UW:

US:
Oregon:

I am watching the "deaths per million residents" data as a way to compare different states.
As of April 7, the US is at 33 fatalities per million (8 states and DC are higher than this, the rest of the states lower, Oregon is currently at 7 per million).
This data is from a column on the right side of this chart:


So back to the IHME predictions, at 171 fatalities in Oregon, would be 40.7 per million people. Not good but here are the predictions for a few other states:
Washington: 84 per million.
California: 45 per million.
Florida: 308 per million.
Georgia: 319 per million.
New York: 805 per million.

For comparison, based on 2019 data, auto fatalities in the US were 114 per million people.

Stay Home. Stay Safe. Save Lives. Protect our Medical heroes.
 

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