COVID-19

rogerdodger

rogerdodger

Moderator
Most Featured
Joined
Oct 12, 2011
Messages
3,172
Location
Florence
for anyone wondering whether we might see stronger lockdown orders in the US...

US deaths on a linear scale as of March 26:

jfcvoN6.jpg

from here: https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

World death totals on a log scale with "Star" marks when some countries enacted full lockdowns.

P5JK6vZ.jpg

from here: Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read
 
G

Gulfstream

Most Featured
Joined
Jul 19, 2015
Messages
529
Location
Coos Bay,Oregon
I had a chat with our Mayor about banning UNNECESSARY travel and lodging on the south coast Wednesday. They had a meeting yesterday with curry county officials and were sending a resolution to Gov Brown today.We don't have it here, YET...and hopefully it stays away. Stay Safe!
 
my2labs

my2labs

Active member
Joined
Apr 10, 2014
Messages
285
Location
Northwest
is it that it is not there, or that no one is able to get tested? The spread of this is far greater than the data can show.

I missed 5 days of work due to an illness three weeks ago. Never have missed more than 2 in my life. I however, was unable to be tested. —-As an example. So I’ll now never know if I had covid and made it out okay, or if I still am susceptible to covid as a person who has not yet been exposed.
 
G

Gulfstream

Most Featured
Joined
Jul 19, 2015
Messages
529
Location
Coos Bay,Oregon
Good question and point. I read yesterday that Coos County has tested 123 people and so far 72 have come back negative. Curious on why you could not get tested?
 
Hooked Up

Hooked Up

Active member
Joined
Feb 24, 2013
Messages
556
Location
West Haven - Sylvan
My wife is still sick at home, self quarantine. She called about getting tested but since she doesn't have a fever she was told she's not eligible for a test.

South Korea got on top of this with wide spread testing and quarantine of people who tested positive. Inexcusable that wide spread testing isn't happening here.
 
my2labs

my2labs

Active member
Joined
Apr 10, 2014
Messages
285
Location
Northwest
Good question and point. I read yesterday that Coos County has tested 123 people and so far 72 have come back negative. Curious on why you could not get tested?
I attempted to get tested two days after my fever dropped. - I had it for 5 days... (Which is when this really started heating up) and they said nope. So ... out of respect for everyone, I have not left my house for three weeks. Very thankful to have a backyard and detached garage at this point.....
 
my2labs

my2labs

Active member
Joined
Apr 10, 2014
Messages
285
Location
Northwest
My wife is still sick at home, self quarantine.
Well wishes Hans!

The whole reaction to how things are being handled nation wide is inexcusable
Curious what your reaction is to how it’s been handled?
I am of the belief that the US did not act quickly enough and that is why we are now #1 on the world list for covid. I think the handle on it is certainly improving but it is hard to look past how it was shrugged off initially. And I am very concerned about returning to normal to quickly as well.
To be clear, I have no political stance on this at all. And it is nice to see that congress has set aside all of the BS that has been Congress for so long now to at least get a few things passed. (In normal times, I would not be happy about the recent bills)

let’s just listen to the doctors right now...
 
hobster

hobster

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2012
Messages
1,311
Location
Eugene
No comment here because I don’t want to get political. According to someone the fake news and liberal media was making a big deal out of nothing, and was just sabotaging the election. We acted way too late.
Oops I did it, shoulda shut up
 
Hooked Up

Hooked Up

Active member
Joined
Feb 24, 2013
Messages
556
Location
West Haven - Sylvan
The whole reaction to how things are being handled nation wide is inexcusable
That's what I meant, across the country.

Well wishes Hans!
Thank you Devan. Hope you're feeling better.

No comment here because I don’t want to get political. According to someone the fake news and liberal media was making a big deal out of nothing, and was just sabotaging the election. We acted way too late.
Oops I did it, shoulda shut up
I agree with you Eric, not on the shutting up part:).
 
hobster

hobster

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 25, 2012
Messages
1,311
Location
Eugene
I agree with you Eric, not on the shutting up part:).

?right on Hans, I know a lot of my buddies on here feel the same way. I probably should not have opened that can of worms though.
 
P

pinstriper

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 9, 2014
Messages
817
Location
Outer SW Portlandia
Curious what your reaction is to how it’s been handled?
I am of the belief that the US did not act quickly enough and that is why we are now #1 on the world list for covid. I think the handle on it is certainly improving but it is hard to look past how it was shrugged off initially. And I am very concerned about returning to normal to quickly as well.
To be clear, I have no political stance on this at all. And it is nice to see that congress has set aside all of the BS that has been Congress for so long now to at least get a few things passed. (In normal times, I would not be happy about the recent bills)

let’s just listen to the doctors right now...

You have to be careful about a few things. The US is #1 in total active cases, but that figure doesn't count those who have died or recovered. China (if you believe their numbers at all) is on the downhill side of this and their active case count is lower and dropping. But they have had WAY more people go through it than us. So it is misleading to say "we've moved into the top spot". We lag their timeline and are still on the rise.

Testing in the US was held back because right or wrong, a decision was made at the CDC to develop a new test instead of use the same test the rest of the world was. So yes, testing lagged, and was then controlled tightly not only due to supplies but also the very few labs that could process the tests.

This is changing, we now have a test rolling out that instead of several days will take less than a minute. But this is still a developing supply situation. For now testing capacity has increased, but is still reserved for those showing more definitive symptoms and MOST IMPORTANTLY those cases where it will change the treatment plan. That is unlikely to change before we are beyond peak infection.

Vaccine trials are underway and have been for several weeks.

I do not speak for my employer but the above information is straight out of briefings in a healthcare company, not culled from facebook posts..

I will also point out that the way to read Roger's second chart is that at the same point in time from the first infection, the US infection rate is below every other nation except Japan and South Korea. Caveat about lack of testing leading to understated figures applies, of course.
 
my2labs

my2labs

Active member
Joined
Apr 10, 2014
Messages
285
Location
Northwest
I won’t argue with you Mark. You have a much more direct source of information that I do. Appreciate the contribution.
 
Hooked Up

Hooked Up

Active member
Joined
Feb 24, 2013
Messages
556
Location
West Haven - Sylvan
You've a connection to the front lines of the pandemic that most of us don't. I'm hopeful about new tests with expedient results being used.

I do blame whoever made the decision not to use WHO tests in the interim. Test and quarantine was/is essential especially since the early message was this would all blow over.
 
Admin

Admin

Admin
Joined
Dec 25, 2006
Messages
1,889
Location
Oregon
China (if you believe their numbers at all) is on the downhill side of this and their active case count is lower and dropping.

How do we know that count is dropping because they took the virus under control, not because everyone got infected and virus just can't find new bodies to infect?
 
rogerdodger

rogerdodger

Moderator
Most Featured
Joined
Oct 12, 2011
Messages
3,172
Location
Florence
there are models for the % of people that need to be infected/recovered in order to cause a drop in new infections, I don't think any countries have come close to that yet.
 
P

pinstriper

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 9, 2014
Messages
817
Location
Outer SW Portlandia
Right. That point does come, not sure where it is, and I for sure and skeptical of the numbers anyway, due to lack of testing and general distrust of China’s reporting anyway.

Hans I totally agree with you it shouldn’t have been an either/or thing.

There is also a 4 hour result test rolling out this week in mass quantities.
 
rogerdodger

rogerdodger

Moderator
Most Featured
Joined
Oct 12, 2011
Messages
3,172
Location
Florence
March 28- US looks to hit 2,000 deaths about 1pm PDT.

To put this graph in context, China has 4.3x the population of the US and a higher density (China- 375 people per sq.mile, US-87 per sq.mile). I think it is safe to say that the US is past the point where delays in testing would change the current situation.

VmlfUo2.jpg

For contrast, here is the data for South Korea, which took extensive early action and flattened the curve. The US has 6x the population of Korea, however they have a much higher population density (Korea- 1313 people per sq.mile).

nTQy2uZ.jpg

Great article from National Geographic on the impact of early and longer duration social distancing, based on 1918 flu epidemic:


jyHs89Y.jpg
 
W

wils

Active member
Joined
Jul 18, 2014
Messages
174
Location
bend
The tests that WHO had were giving false positives and false negatives.
There has been a nasty flu up and down the west coast for a couple of months now.
The media doesn't make money when people don't follow the news 24/7.
just sayin'
 
Top Bottom