Chetco Monday and Tuesday

bigavicfan

New member
Also anyone kno of any spots. I know about the spots Along chetco road I believe is the name of the road. Also if anyone's wants to join me for sum fishing that be cool too. Thanks everyone.

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DrTheopolis

Well-known member
That graph is what makes long-range planning of trips tough -- they missed the estimate by over 3 feet(at the time of this posting). Happens on the Clack a lot, too.
 

bigavicfan

New member
Well shoot, was hoping to do sum steelhead fishing. Any ideas where I could go? I usually only fish the Applegate but trying to fish near the coast this year. So not to sure where to go.

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rogerdodger

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That graph is what makes long-range planning of trips tough -- they missed the estimate by over 3 feet(at the time of this posting). Happens on the Clack a lot, too.
not exactly, the ~3' difference that you point out is for different times; it is comparing the 12:30pm observation with the 3pm forecast.

the 1:30pm observation came in at 12.54' and they now have the 4pm forecast up to 16.12'. based on this, you might expect the 2:30pm observation, which should come in soon, to be close to 14'...which is getting close to the original 3pm forecast of 14.67'.

update: 2:30pm: 13.07', 4pm forecast now 15.56'...
 
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eat sleep fish

Active member
Well shoot, was hoping to do sum steelhead fishing. Any ideas where I could go? I usually only fish the Applegate but trying to fish near the coast this year. So not to sure where to go.
Not many options for this week. Upper Rogue by the hatchery is always fishable though. Still some late summers around, and the first winter steelhead are starting to show up.
 

bigavicfan

New member
Not many options for this week. Upper Rogue by the hatchery is always fishable though. Still some late summers around, and the first winter steelhead are starting to show up.
Winter steelies are already that high up?

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DrTheopolis

Well-known member
not exactly, the ~3' difference that you point out is for different times; it is comparing the 12:30pm observation with the 3pm forecast.

I was actually (at the time of my posting) comparing where the real-time reading (or close to) hit the vertical line to where the prediction hit the same line. Of course, the prediction is updated to reflect the actual observation, but sometimes it lags.

And IIRC, the prediction for last night was around 19', which was OFF by a huge margin. At the time of this posting, the prediction has been significantly altered. Not complaining, since I'm 100% certain that whoever is in charge of such things has forgotten more in the last hour about hydrological predictions than I'll ever know. Just saying the predictions aren't set in stone.
 
The Chetco is my home river and I miss it so. There is a lot of bank access along the Chetco. Once it clears, nearly any turnout from around 4 miles up the north bank road all the way up to Miller and Nook bar 10-14 miles up, and even waaaay up 40 miles will have great water. My dad has had a very good season so far plunking the stop-and-go (half red half chartreuse) color spin glo with no bait, yarn, or scent. Nearly one a day! Have a great day on that river, I love it.
 

eat sleep fish

Active member
It looks like it may be plunkable today and definitely should be tomorrow. If you're in the area it would probably be worth a shot.

I was actually (at the time of my posting) comparing where the real-time reading (or close to) hit the vertical line to where the prediction hit the same line. Of course, the prediction is updated to reflect the actual observation, but sometimes it lags.

And IIRC, the prediction for last night was around 19', which was OFF by a huge margin. At the time of this posting, the prediction has been significantly altered. Not complaining, since I'm 100% certain that whoever is in charge of such things has forgotten more in the last hour about hydrological predictions than I'll ever know. Just saying the predictions aren't set in stone.
The predictions are never right on the money and it can definitely be frustrating at times, but the same goes with weather forecasts. If you watch both though, you'll have a better feeling for if it's going to come in under or over the projection. And it really wasn't off by much. Not sure where you got the 19ft but when I posted it the projection was for it to hit 14.67ft and it actually crested at 14.01. That's not too bad in my opinion.


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rogerdodger

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The predictions are never right on the money and it can definitely be frustrating at times, but the same goes with weather forecasts. If you watch both though, you'll have a better feeling for if it's going to come in under or over the projection. And it really wasn't off by much. Not sure where you got the 19ft but when I posted it the projection was for it to hit 14.67ft and it actually crested at 14.01. That's not too bad in my opinion.


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they did up the forecast to 19' briefly while I was watching things, probably an extrapolation based on it rising 1'/hour for a while, but they pulled that down to a much lower crest forecast within an hour or so.

another thing to consider, sorry if this is a bit engineering wonky, but remembering that during rising water events the goal is to alert to possible action/flooding situations, it would be normal to apply 'one sided tolerancing'. This basically means if the capability of the modeling process, during quickly rising water events, is to forecast within say +/- 2' of the actual water level a couple of hours into the future, you would always want to be on the high side, which means shifting the forecast error range to be +4'/-0'.
 

DrTheopolis

Well-known member
I'm sure Roger is correct there -- the hydrologists are more concerned about getting those affected to higher ground than they are with pinpointing a good fishing level... as it should be.

I remember the Old Days, when you had to call the river hotline, and hope they had updated info.
 

jamisonace

Most Featured
Forecasts on the chetco have been waaay off this year. I have to agree with the doctor. Long range planning has been very difficult on the south coast.

The Smith in CA was gorgeous yesterday though.

I was actually (at the time of my posting) comparing where the real-time reading (or close to) hit the vertical line to where the prediction hit the same line. Of course, the prediction is updated to reflect the actual observation, but sometimes it lags.

And IIRC, the prediction for last night was around 19', which was OFF by a huge margin. At the time of this posting, the prediction has been significantly altered. Not complaining, since I'm 100% certain that whoever is in charge of such things has forgotten more in the last hour about hydrological predictions than I'll ever know. Just saying the predictions aren't set in stone.
 
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